Comment: The Makerfield result means Labour might have reason to hope Published on: 19 June 2026 Writing for The Conversation, Martin Farr discusses how the big win in Makerfield for Andy Burnham might give the Labour party reason to hope. , The possible nominative determinism of the Makerfield constituency may prove as significant to political historians as it has been a blessing to newspaper sub-editors crafting puns on “Makerfield or Breakerfield”. The immediate futures of Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer were decided in the historic happening of the first UK byelection to effectively elect a prime minister. It was a battle of our times. Burnham’s success will make a new administration as it breaks the present one. Prime Minister has been largely an ineffectual one – of which Burnham, crucially, was not a part. This may be the moment – “the final chance to change”, as the victorious candidate put it – that transforms the performance and perception of Labour. But it also demonstrates how profoundly, and rapidly, politics in Britain is changing. Governing parties don’t win byelections, and certainly not on swings. Burnham’s , more than more than that of Reform UK, was unexpectedly emphatic – a personal triumph. The momentum behind Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage, has if not stalled then noticeably decelerated. A second seat in the north-west that Reform ought to have won this year, it hasn’t – and this time resoundingly. Much was down to Labour’s exceptional candidate – and Reform’s . In the May local election, Reform was rampant, of the vote in Makerfield, and Restore Britain didn’t stand. Last night, Rupert Lowe’s party . with politics of such unabashed illiberalism as to make Reform resemble the Liberal Democrats. It is too simplistic to assume that had Restore not stood, its voters would have turned to Reform (and in any case, Burnham would still have won conclusively). But rather than deal in switchers, Restore’s menace is its appeal to non-voters. This byelection was not merely a matter of getting someone into parliament to supplant a prime minister. It was intended, and needed to be, a statement. More than any incumbent party in history, given the unique febrility of politics in 2026, Labour could not hope, much less expect, to win a byelection anywhere. Never competitive in rural constituencies, in cities Labour is prey to the Greens, in towns to Reform and Restore, and in Scotland and Wales to nationalists. ( in the other byelections on the same day, both in Scotland.) Reform and tactical voting Ironically, given the central importance of “place” in this byelection, Makerfield isn’t one. A swathe of small towns and bits of larger ones, its identity is regional and emblematic, if not typical, of seats which used in lore to weigh rather than count votes for Labour. However, new parties now appeal in a political marketplace for the disaffected. Andy Burnham contesting a seat in Greater Manchester was almost the only likely Labour victory. There were more propitious seats, such as Gorton and Denton in February, but a weak Starmer . Weakened further by the May elections, the prime minister was unable to do so a second time for Makerfield. As it turned out, that initial rebuff has burnished Burnham’s subsequent success. The greater marginality of Makerfield makes the statement much greater. Reform’s rise has been tempered by two otherwise unrelated phenomena. Just as Farage inspires, he also repels: his is a unique talent for encouraging tactical voting (the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green party of just 3.3% in Makerfield suggests as much). Burnham’s clearest and most long-term policy – – is intended to address the negativity surrounding politics today. The salience of proportional representation has never been greater than in Britain’s new multi-party politics. With Burnham as prime minister, it is likely to be a Labour manifesto commitment for the first time. But Burnham’s undoubted personal popularity provides more questions than answers – not least, whether a politician who has been highly successfully regionally can translate that record to the national, and international, level. There is also the question of whether the affability and relatability so integral to his appeal can withstand the vicissitudes of the highest office – as well as the scepticism, cynicism and increasing impatience of voters. Burnham will soon discover that the quickest way for a popular politician to become an unpopular politician is to become prime minister. This is not Burnham’s first attempt to lead Labour. To the political questions of the day in 2010 and 2015, he was not the answer. In the post-New Labour world, Burnham lost to a softer leftist in Ed Miliband. And in the electoral wild west begat by Miliband’s party reforms, he lost to . But third time around, Burnham might just be the answer. The fractured multi-party politics of 2026 may respond more favourably to Labour with a leader whom its members and voters actually want to vote for. Getting Labour’s vote out next time will be its highest priority. As almost never happens, the turnout in yesterday’s byelection was higher than in the general election. Burnham’s re-election to parliament would always – to use the word of the age – change things. The measure would be the scale of his victory. For him to be a serious alternative leader, much less a saviour, the victory needed to be big. It was, and it was also personal. But whether his appeal is portable will soon be the question. Some in Labour may see in Makerfield, as Churchill did El-Alamein, of victory. It certainly denotes both the beginning of Starmer’s end, and the end of Burnham’s beginning. , Senior Lecturer in Contemporary British History, This article is republished from under a Creative Commons license. Read the . Latest News Local knowledge can improve early warnings of glacial lake floods Local knowledge, improved evacuation preparedness and resilient mobile phone-based communication channels can enhance Early Warning Systems to reduce loss of life during glacial lake outburst floods. published on: 3 August 2026 Funding boost moves landmark cancer research centre a step closer A ÂŁ1.25 million grant from the Wolfson Foundation to Â鶹´«Ă˝ has brought the Sir Bobby Robson Institute a significant step closer, giving a major boost to its fundraising campaign. published on: 3 August 2026 Statement on potential unauthorised data access Information about a potential unauthorised data access. published on: 30 July 2026 Facts and figures
![Â鶹´«Ă˝ logo](/gomobileassets/img/logo.svg" "Â鶹´«Ă˝"){kind=logo}